Valentina Zharkova (Wave amplitude)

Today we  review and take a look at the Wave Amplitude graph produced by Prof Valentina Zharkova and her team of Scientists.

Zharkova

First we look at the graph and see “the medieval warm period” dated as 1400-1530 approx, there are several dates given for the Medieval warm period 950-1250, 800-1400 seem to be the years cited by many outlets, the above suggests 1350-1530? I see no connection to the MWP around these dates. However we did see a peak in temps around 1500 + 1720 during the colder period after the medieval optimum, LIA, see below.

nmnmnm

This peak is visible in the Zharkova graph (G1) but does not depict the MWP. We then see from the graph (G2) another peak around 1720 that does not fit in the graph of Zharkova in (G1), as these peaks were of similar strength (1500+1720) expectations would be; the Dynamic strength of the Wave Amplitude should be similar in (G1), they are not, peak in 1900 fits the Zharkova graph modern Maxima (G1+G2).

The wave Amplitude in (G1) “reduction in wave amplitude” fits the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715 above, However the Dalton event of solar cycle 4-7 does not fit (1790-1830 or 1796-1820).

Let us take a look at the Graph with all the details i have overlaid below. (G3)

zharkova

Note the Maunder does fit, however the wave amplitude suggests weaker cycles from 1715-1770, 40 years prior to the Dalton. Overlaying the solar cycles onto the Wave Amp graph indeed does suggest cycle 25 will be the start of the Eddy Minimum lasting at least 5-6 cycles before an increase in wave Amplitude around 2100 however does not suggest a second Amplitude crossover (cancel out) as we seen during the late 1700’s, solar cycle 25 will be a positive magnetic polar north.

Looking at the cycle progression (sunspot graphs) we can also see that there is no obvious connection in wave amplitude and strength of the cycle, as 3/4/8/9/11/18/19/21 cycles were the strongest cycles, however (G1) suggests 3/4/8/19 were not the strongest in wave amplitude.

We should not therefore associate sunspot groupings or cycle magnitude with the “WAVE AMPLITUDE” as this is a very poor fit, However there is an obvious long term correlation to a weak and strong wave Amplification over the last 700 years of reconstructed observations, that show cyclic behaviour of the Toroidal and Magnetic fields, moreover the reconstruction suggests a “cancellation” around solar cycle 26 commencement around 2030 (± 3 years), although there is some differences in Dates within (G1) it does not take away from the overall progression of reconstructed wave Amplification which could take place at cycle 25/26 leading to a significant reduction in Plasma density, speed and dynamic pressure leaving the corona, resulting in significant reductions in land and sea temperatures. Of course as with every reconstructed scientific theorems we need to see the results play out, if indeed they do then this is a major leap forward in the understanding of solar cycles and magnetohydrodynamics, we must also correlate Land and Sea temperatures to this theory also as the connection must be valid with all the other feedbacks of  solar activity, Sunspots, Plasma wind density, speed, Proton Flux, F10.7cm flux, Coronal mass ejections, flares etc must all be connected to the Wave Amplitude.

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Growing food “The Russian Way”

During times of low solar activity heading into a new era of Global cooling one should seek the very best information with regards to survival, we all need sustenance to energies our metabolism and go about the “recovery” period.

 Millions of Russians commute to rural dacha gardens from May to September. While some Russians do have a garden by their primary home (ogoro), many more commute an hour or more to reach the family’s dacha garden.Working with an average space of 6 sotkas (600 square metres, or about 6458 square feet) and a growing seasons of less than 120 days north of Moscow, Russian dacha gardeners (dachniks) provide half of Russia’s food supply by working hard, making the most of what they have, and generously sharing the bounty with one another.

The following article Written by Barbara Pleasant Takes us through the several very interesting methods used, inclusive is a small video actually taken in a dacha Garden.

Lets go to the dacha

THE DAWNING OF MODERN MINIMA BY THE YEAR 2035/40

It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. study of changes in the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface has a cyclic structure vary in every 11 years that is also imposed on the Earth environment as the analysis of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other isotopes in glaciers and in the trees showed.

There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 206-year cycles are the best known of them. The 11-year cycle appears as a cyclical reduction in stains on the surface of the Sun every 11 years. Its 206-year variation is associated with periodic reduction in the number of spots in the 11-year cycle in the 60-70%. during the 17th century there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1715. During this period, counts of only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots where observed. Analysis of solar radiation showed that its maxima and minima coincided with the maxima and minima in the number of spots.

solar cycles ORIGINAL DOC

Researchers have analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms for three cycles of solar activity (21-23) by applying the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows to reduce the data dimensionality and noise also to identify waves with the largest contribution to the observational data. This method can be compared with the decomposition of white light on the rainbow prism detecting the waves of different frequencies. As a result, the researchers developed a new method of analysis, which helped to uncover that the magnetic waves in the Sun which proved to have been generated in pairs, with the main pair covering 40% of variance of the data (Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS). The principal component pair is responsible for the variations of a dipole field of the Sun, which changes its polarity from pole to pole (N>S) during 11-year solar cycle.

These magnetic waves travel from the opposite hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere (odd cycles) or to Southern Hemisphere (even cycles), with the phase shift between the waves increasing with a cycle number. These waves interact with each other in the hemisphere where they have maximum (Northern for odd cycles and Southern for even ones). These two components are assumed to originate in two different layers in the solar interior (inner and outer) with close, but not equal, frequencies and a variable phase shift (Dr. Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics).

The scientists lead by Zharkova managed to derive the analytical formula, correlating the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers. The scientists made the first prediction of magnetic activity in the cycle 24, which gave 97% accuracy in comparison with the principal components derived from the observations. They then extended the prediction of these two magnetic waves to the next two cycles 25/26 and discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26 and thus have little chance of interacting and producing sunspot numbers. This will lead to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2035—2040 comparable with the conditions existed previously during the Maunder minimum in the 17th century when there were only 50-70 sunspots observed instead of the usual 40-50 thousand expected.

The stage is then set for this to result in a reduction of solar irradiance of 3wm², this reduction will result in severe cold winters and shortened growing seasons across the United states Asia and eastern Europe. Dr Helen Popova says “Waters in the river Thames and the Danube will freeze over, the Moscow river will freeze every six months and snow will lay on the some plains all year round”. Greenland will revert back to full glaciation.

The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. Increases in the volcanic activity comes after an Ice Age this then leads to the greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, which means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, decreasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, increasing the cloud nucleation and making the atmosphere cool again. However this process does come with some delay.

On closing There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages in the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago, CO2 levels have been much higher than “modern eras” so the conclusion that “man made” Anthropogenic warming is unfortunately driven by political agenda and fundamentally flawed.

F10.7cm Flux Trends. A new era?

My Research and observations into the progression of F10.7cm solar flux have resulted in the following conclusions.

SUNSPOTS VS 10.7CM FLUX

1-Cycle minimum of October 1964 the 10.7cm flux took 21 months to get above 100.(add decimal point in graph). 106.7 july 1966.
high solar flux then lasted 83 months =6.9yrs to may 1973.
2.-June 1973-November 1977 low solar Flux. 53 months =4.4yrs.
3- December 1977-June 1984 High solar flux. 70 months = 5.8yrs.
4. July 1984 – Jan 1988 Low solar Flux
41months = 3.4yrs.
5-Feb 1988 – June 1993 High solar Flux
64 months = 5.3yrs.
6-July 1993 – March 1998 Low solar Flux 58months. = 4.8yrs
7-April 1998 – November 2004 High solar Flux 89 months. = 7.4yrs.
8-December 2004 – March 2011 Low solar Flux
70 months = 5.8yrs.
9- April 2011 – February 2016 High solar flux
58months = 4.8yrs.
10- March 2016 – Current low solar flux, = 21 months this on trend will continue for at least the next 35/40 months or 2.9/3.3yrs. = Sept 2020/ March 2021. excluding intermittent short F10.7 months as in September 2017 x-class Flares.
The Overall conclusion is that F10.7cm Flux has a negative trend in time scale from April 1998 when the highest period length of F10.7 lasted 7.4 years.
F10.7 flux is our guide to energy emitted from the Sun, this negative trend suggests a deep Minimum in the coming decades with trending long term low 10.7cm flux.

This will result in a reduction of Solar Irradiance and an overall downward trend in Temperatures; as we are already seeing from the Teleconnections during 2016/17 in the Northern Hemisphere.

Impact of the dominant large-scale teleconnections on winter temperature variability over East Asia

 

Abstract

[1] Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50°N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30°N–50°N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30°N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

Understanding Teleconnections and Global weather patterns is becoming a key player in understanding anomalies during winter, the following from the Journal of Geophysics Research goes on to explain the “Connections”.

Go Ahead click the link.. you know you want to.

Cosmic Ray Induced Cloud Cover

There has been many papers over the years suggesting a strong link with Galactic Cosmic Rays and low level cloud cover resulting in a “cooling” effect of Earth, Cosmic rays are atomic nuclei: most are hydrogen nuclei, some are helium nuclei, and the rest heavier elements. Although many of the low energy cosmic rays come from our Sun, the origins of the highest energy cosmic rays remains unknown and a topic of much research, Most scientists suspect their origins are related to supernovas (star explosions).

Cosmic rays arrive with a variety of energies.  At the lowest energies, cosmic radiation is very common.  These particles originate from sources close to Earth such as the Sun.  We are shielded from most of the low energy particles by their interaction with the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field. The basic unit of measurement used in discussing the energy of a cosmic ray is the electron volt,  (eV.)  One eV is the amount of energy gained by a single electron when passing through an electric potential of one volt.  Common batteries (such as a D-cell) have a potential of 1.5 volts, so a single electron through a regular battery will gain 1.5 eV. 

As the energy of the cosmic rays increases, the frequency of the particles decreases steeply.  On arrival at the Earth, their path experiences less bending in the magnetic field and they penetrate deeper into the atmosphere.  Particles with intermediate energy levels, around what is called the “Knee” of the spectrum, are called Very High Energy cosmic rays and they occur with a frequency of one per square meter per year.  For the highest energy cosmic rays, above 1016 eV or what is called the “Ankle,” the rate of events falls to one per square kilometer per century.

The leading candidates for the source of Ultra High Energy cosmic rays are large, energetic structures where strong shocks are expected to be found. The most well known of these are supernova remnants, which have long been suspected to generate cosmic rays. Still, it is difficult to explain the existence of cosmic rays above 1016 eV, because supernovae are simply not large enough to maintain acceleration for Ultra High Energy particles.  Scientists suspect other large structures such as active galactic nuclei or colliding galaxies might be candidate objects which produce or accelerate these cosmic rays.

Here i provide  link to a very interesting paper published in the Astronomy and Geophysics published in the year 2000

Follow the link, you know you want to.

 

 

A Changing Polar Vortex

Over the past few years, the polar Vortex has been shifting but that doesn’t mean the Northern Hemisphere is going to be experiencing a milder winters. The polar vortex is shifting, and it’s going to make winters on the east coast of the US and parts of Europe even longer, with exceptionally cold temperatures expected during March.

The polar vortex is a zone of cold air that swirls around the Arctic during winter. When parts of the vortex break apart (weakens), it can cause unseasonably cold conditions in late-winter and early-spring in the Northern Hemisphere. This happened in early 2014 and caused an extreme weather event in the northern US and Canada.

Not many people realise there are actually two polar vortices: the stratospheric polar vortex, which is about 19,800 metres (65,000 feet) above the surface of the Earth; and the tropospheric polar vortex around 5,500 to 9,100 metres (18,000 to 30,000 feet) above the surface. Usually, when the weather forecasters are talking about the polar vortex, they’re referring to the tropospheric vortex, which is the one that rips apart and plunges cold air towards mid-latitude cities, such as New York. The stratospheric polar vortex, can have a bigger, but more subtle effect on mid-latitude weather.

The stratospheric polar vortex has gradually been moving towards the Eurasian continent, and getting weaker over the past 30 years. That might sound like a good thing for warm weather lovers, but a weaker polar vortex means a vortex that’s more likely to break, and those breakages are what send unseasonably late winter blasts of cold air down to the rest of the world. When the polar vortex is strong, on the other hand, all that cold air gets contained nicely in the Arctic circle where it traditionally is at that time of year. The weakening of the polar vortex isn’t necessarily new, it’s something several studies have shown over recent years. But this study also shows that the vortex is moving away from North America and towards Europe and Asia during February each year, and that could cause the east coast of the US to get even colder.

The meteorology is complicated, but the study says this shift tends to result in more of a dip in the jet stream over the east coast during February/March, which leads to colder temperatures, studies also found that this vortex shift is “closely related to shrinking sea ice coverage in the Arctic, particularly in the Barents-Kara seas, and increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent. But that link is still a little tenuous, The main issue here is that researchers have found a correlation, but no one has been able to show exactly how melting ice in the Arctic sea is causing the polar vortex to shift. The problem with most if not all of the Arctic/jet stream studies has been the lack of a clear physical cause and effect relationship, with correlations found but mechanisms as yet uncovered, However the consequences will still remain throughout Winters coupled with less solar irradiance and the ever increasing influx of Cosmic Rays, cooling Sea surface temperatures in 2016/17 and sun spots a rarity during cycle 24/25 Earth could be heading into temperatures similar to that of the maunder minimum of 1647-1715, a key component indeed will be the progression of solar cycle 25, so we have a decade at most to evaluate our current status and change the mindsets of CO2 induced climate change.

Watch this space for topical updates throughout cycle 25.