THE DAWNING OF MODERN MINIMA BY THE YEAR 2035/40

It is known that the Sun has its own magnetic field, the amplitude and spatial configuration of which vary with time. The formation and decay of strong magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere results in the changes of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, the intensity of plasma flows coming from the Sun, and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. study of changes in the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface has a cyclic structure vary in every 11 years that is also imposed on the Earth environment as the analysis of carbon-14, beryllium-10 and other isotopes in glaciers and in the trees showed.

There are several cycles with different periods and properties, while the 11-year cycle, the 206-year cycles are the best known of them. The 11-year cycle appears as a cyclical reduction in stains on the surface of the Sun every 11 years. Its 206-year variation is associated with periodic reduction in the number of spots in the 11-year cycle in the 60-70%. during the 17th century there was a prolonged reduction in solar activity called the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1715. During this period, counts of only about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40-50 thousand sunspots where observed. Analysis of solar radiation showed that its maxima and minima coincided with the maxima and minima in the number of spots.

solar cycles ORIGINAL DOC

Researchers have analysed a total background magnetic field from full disk magnetograms for three cycles of solar activity (21-23) by applying the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows to reduce the data dimensionality and noise also to identify waves with the largest contribution to the observational data. This method can be compared with the decomposition of white light on the rainbow prism detecting the waves of different frequencies. As a result, the researchers developed a new method of analysis, which helped to uncover that the magnetic waves in the Sun which proved to have been generated in pairs, with the main pair covering 40% of variance of the data (Zharkova et al, 2012, MNRAS). The principal component pair is responsible for the variations of a dipole field of the Sun, which changes its polarity from pole to pole (N>S) during 11-year solar cycle.

These magnetic waves travel from the opposite hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere (odd cycles) or to Southern Hemisphere (even cycles), with the phase shift between the waves increasing with a cycle number. These waves interact with each other in the hemisphere where they have maximum (Northern for odd cycles and Southern for even ones). These two components are assumed to originate in two different layers in the solar interior (inner and outer) with close, but not equal, frequencies and a variable phase shift (Dr. Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics).

The scientists lead by Zharkova managed to derive the analytical formula, correlating the evolution of these two waves and calculated the summary curve which was linked to the variations of sunspot numbers. The scientists made the first prediction of magnetic activity in the cycle 24, which gave 97% accuracy in comparison with the principal components derived from the observations. They then extended the prediction of these two magnetic waves to the next two cycles 25/26 and discovered that the waves become fully separated into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26 and thus have little chance of interacting and producing sunspot numbers. This will lead to a sharp decline in solar activity in years 2035—2040 comparable with the conditions existed previously during the Maunder minimum in the 17th century when there were only 50-70 sunspots observed instead of the usual 40-50 thousand expected.

The stage is then set for this to result in a reduction of solar irradiance of 3wm², this reduction will result in severe cold winters and shortened growing seasons across the United states Asia and eastern Europe. Dr Helen Popova says “Waters in the river Thames and the Danube will freeze over, the Moscow river will freeze every six months and snow will lay on the some plains all year round”. Greenland will revert back to full glaciation.

The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. Increases in the volcanic activity comes after an Ice Age this then leads to the greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, which means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, decreasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, where the magnetic field of the Sun decreases, the intensity of cosmic ray rises, increasing the cloud nucleation and making the atmosphere cool again. However this process does come with some delay.

On closing There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages in the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago, CO2 levels have been much higher than “modern eras” so the conclusion that “man made” Anthropogenic warming is unfortunately driven by political agenda and fundamentally flawed.

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